Lioncrest Publishing Understanding How the Future Unfolds: Using Drive to Harness the Power of Today's Megatrends

Me pareció un excelente libro, muy fácil de leer y lleno de ejemplos. Me dio una guía de como basar mis decisiones futuras en datos, lo cual ayuda a que la efectividad aumente y la incertidumbre del futuro disminuya. 100% recomendado.

The authors, Drs. Tse and Esposito, have done an admirable job popularizing very complex academic forecasting tools that involve complex mathematical algorithms along with social and psychological theories used to predict behaviors by individuals, large groups and global companies.Their thesis asserts that global technology, business, group and individual behavior patterns are changing at a rate that may soon be amenable only to AI complex analysis, and they are suggesting that human beings must develop positive, proactive Big Think tools to understand, and be able take actionable, timely intelligent measures and become comfortable with Chaos and probability theories.They have developed a systems tool called DRIVE that looks at elements in five behavior fields to develop a unified system that allows them a more effective statistical system for advising business groups as wells as individuals.They use the term MEGA TRENDS to define technology, economic and political changes that only behave in a predictable manner when analyzed with complex chaos systems algorithms.Some of the global mega trends they discuss as troublesome and challenging: 1. Resources are becoming scarce when faced with a population that is moving from 7 billion towards 12 billion, 2. Median age in the Western countries is rising, with major economic impacts on individual countries' ability to fund pensions and healthcare, 3. Volatility is increasing in scope, frequency and economic spheres, raising deep concerns for global trading systems and migration, 4. Inequality is increasing across the globe with ownership of all assets increasingly concentrated in fewer hands, corporations and multi-generational trust funds-as well as between age groups with unpredictable political consequences arising quickly from a declining jobs basis driven by a rapid deployment of robotics and AI driven manufacturing and software platforms and 5. Enterprising global changes that are, increasingly, changing individuals' ability to stay employed, fund retirement and raise children, because new ideas and technologies are changing increasingly faster across a global market place.Some deep concerns they raise are: 1. Will our food system need to become so factory-based and hybridized that our health outcomes may become jeopardized?, 2. Will drinkable water become so scarce that it will impact our ability to sustain large urban centers?, 3. Will climate change accelerate so quickly that farmers and wine makers will need to either develop new hybrids or relocate their field?, 4. With a global population appearing to have unstoppable inertia, will our global consumption and manufacturing system be able to develop into a sustainable closed loop recycle system? and 5. Can global and individual countries' voting cohorts develop sufficient energy to re-balance the distribution of economic benefits from growth to allow individual workers and families to raise living standards, instead of continuing to just benefit shareholders of corporate stocks and bonds.The authors state (p.163) that " the systems we have in place are no longer working for the majority of people." and that " We need to look closely at the specific technologies we know are going to last so we can evolve with them."For examples, on p. 181, they caution that " there will be a lot of unemployed university professors" as MOOC classes reach out to remote learners, and that " No human being can win the war of cost effectiveness against a robot or automation."On a positive note they state on p. 187 that we will need to accept "chaos as a norm," and that individually, we need to learn to become comfortable thinking in terms of non-linear complexity, "which is a richer playing field ripe with considerable opportunity."The authors caution all of us with "What will the future look like if we do nothing today?" and soberly with " Few businesses will be able to thrive if society as a whole deteriorates." (p. 225).Drs. Terrence Tse and Esposito have produced a thoughtful thesis that deserve to be discussed among more people, at all levels, and across the entire world- before mega trends such as hybridization of food, AI and robotical manufacturing along with a sensor-rich 5G will, perhaps, set an irreversible course with unpredictable consequences, similar, perhaps, to the ecological damage from the grounding of the Exxon Valdez in Alaska.

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Excelente texto que cualquiera encontrará fascinante. El precio es simbólico comparado con lo que la información contenida en el libro realmente vale.